Coritiba Sees Relegation Odds Improve Following Round 33 of Brasileirão
Only five complete rounds remain in the 2026 Brasileirão, with the postponed Chapecoense versus Vasco match left to play. The fight to remain in the top tier intensifies as teams battle to avoid relegation to Série B, and one team now finds itself in a more secure position after Saturday’s matches concluded the 33rd round.
The Mathematics Department at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) has updated the relegation probabilities following the match between Coritiba and Vitória. After claiming victory at Alto da Glória, Coritiba significantly decreased its relegation risk from 8.6% to less than 1%. Conversely, Vitória’s chances of dropping to Série B increased from 8.3% to 14.7%.
Below are the teams still at mathematical risk of relegation, along with their remaining fixtures.
🔻 Who will avoid the drop?
São Paulo and Red Bull Bragantino currently have minimal chances of relegation: 0.024% and 0.005%, respectively.
Coritiba: 0.79%
- Internacional (A)
- Santos (H)
- Bahia (A)
- Flamengo (H)
- Palmeiras (A)
Botafogo: 7.8%
- Atlético-MG (H)
- Corinthians (A)
- São Paulo (H)
- Bahia (H)
- Santos (A)
Vasco da Gama: 8.2%
- Athletico (A)
- Chapecoense (A)
- Internacional (H)
- Red Bull Bragantino (A)
- Atlético-MG (A)
- Vitória (H)
Vitória: 14.7%
- Fluminense (H)
- Red Bull Bragantino (H)
- Internacional (A)
- Santos (H)
- Vasco (A)
Mirassol: 32.9%
- Chapecoense (A)
- Atlético-MG (H)
- Fluminense (A)
- Athletico (H)
- Grêmio (A)
Grêmio: 36.5%
- Flamengo (A)
- Bahia (H)
- Santos (A)
- Corinthians (A)
- Mirassol (H)
Corinthians: 42.7%
- São Paulo (A)
- Botafogo (H)
- Atlético-MG (A)
- Grêmio (H)
- Remo (A)
Internacional: 57.2%
- Coritiba (H)
- Vasco (A)
- Vitória (H)
- Red Bull Bragantino (H)
- Cruzeiro (A)
Remo: 99.21%
- Palmeiras (A)
- Chapecoense (H)
- Athletico (A)
- São Paulo (A)
- Corinthians (H)
Chapecoense: 99.999%
- Mirassol (H)
- Vasco (H)
- Remo (A)
- Cruzeiro (H)
- Palmeiras (H)
- Flamengo (A)
