Top Four World Cup Favorites Advance to Semifinals

The World Cup semifinals are set, featuring the world’s top four teams: France, Spain, England, and Argentina. Notably, every remaining team has previously won the World Cup title.

This marks only the third time in history that all four semifinalists are former champions, following the tournaments in 1970 and 1990. Furthermore, this is the first time the four top-ranked teams according to FIFA rankings have all reached the semifinals since those rankings were established in 1992. While FIFA’s decision to seed the top four teams in separate quadrants assisted this outcome, each squad successfully navigated the group stage and an additional knockout round to earn their spots.

France, Spain, England, and Argentina also entered the tournament as the four betting favorites. None of these teams have lost a match during the competition. While Spain and England dropped points during draws against African opponents—Spain against Cape Verde and England against DR Congo—both teams controlled the scoring chances in those matches.

Tuesday, July 14

France vs. Spain

France-Spain both teams to score (-130)

As the two pre-tournament favorites, France and Spain meet in a clash that many fans anticipated following the draw in December. This remains the most difficult match of the tournament to handicap.

France’s offense currently leads the tournament with 16 goals and a +14 goal difference. Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele stand out as the first teammates to score five goals each at a World Cup since Brazil’s Ronaldo and Rivaldo in 2002. Both players also rank among the top six for chances created. Spain follows closely with 11 goals and 11.7 non-penalty expected goals.

While both defenses have been stingy—Spain has allowed only one goal and France just two—neither has faced an attack as potent as their upcoming opponent. Although these teams previously met in last June’s Nations League semifinals in a 5-4 thriller, a similar scoreline is unlikely. However, given the raw talent on the pitch, both sides should find the back of the net.

Wednesday, July 15

England vs. Argentina

England win (+160) vs. Argentina

England has secured three consecutive one-goal victories in the knockout stage. Argentina has navigated a similar path, though a stoppage-time goal from Lautaro Martínez provided a wider margin in their 3-1 win over Switzerland.

While Argentina’s expected goals statistics appear favorable, England has faced a more difficult path against tougher opponents like Norway and Mexico. Additionally, England possesses a more diverse attack through stars such as Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham. Argentina continues to struggle with replacing Angel Di Maria on the wings, a weakness that was apparent against Switzerland and Egypt. I am taking England to win in 90 minutes, though I remain aware that Lionel Messi could change the outcome at any moment.