Thirty-three days after the World Cup ended, the Premier League season begins on Aug. 21, filled with storylines as usual.

Can Arsenal repeat? Which big clubs will bounce back, and which might struggle? How will the new managers perform? Will any newly-promoted team manage to stay up? Can anyone outscore Erling Haaland?

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These questions will take nine drama-filled months to answer, though clues lie in last season’s statistics. Each team’s roster has seen changes, but enough returnees remain to use previous stats as part of this season’s predictions.

Before last season, Wolverhampton’s underlying numbers suggested relegation dangers for several years, while Bournemouth’s hinted at a push for the Champions League. Both predictions came true, as Wolves were relegated and the Cherries secured sixth place.

The numbers aren’t foolproof, of course. No statistics indicated Tottenham’s near relegation, Chelsea’s struggles to finish in the top half, or Arsenal having one of the best set-piece seasons in Premier League history. That’s the unpredictability of sports. Despite this, analysts will still take their best guesses.

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Soccer handicappers Paul Carr and Jeremy Pond present their best bets for the upcoming Premier League season in an extensive preview:

To win the Premier League title

Manchester City (+280)

Carr: After winning the Premier League for the first time in 21 years, Arsenal is the favorite to repeat at +160. Manchester City follows as the second favorite at +280, with Enzo Maresca taking over from Pep Guardiola. Liverpool (+500), Manchester United (+700), and Chelsea (+800) are also in the mix, all with new managers. The competition is as wide open as it has been in recent memory.

The primary question for the Gunners is whether they can maintain their set-piece prowess. Last season, Arsenal led the league with 25 set-piece goals, the highest in over a decade. Although they surpassed their expected total of 21, upcoming changes in refereeing standards regarding challenges on goalkeepers may necessitate adjustments in their tactics.

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Which team might rise to the top? With uncertainty surrounding every club, I am leaning toward Manchester City (+280).

Although Guardiola is no longer at the helm, Maresca’s two years as an assistant should provide a helpful foundation. He inherits the world’s top striker in Haaland and a strong midfielder in Rodri, along with key attacking options like Jeremy Doku and Rayan Cherki. City led the league in goals and expected goals last season, and improvements on defense could allow them to challenge Arsenal for the title.

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Manchester City to win, Arsenal to finish second (+700)

Pond: This is my favorite futures bet.

Haaland and Manchester City put in a strong finish last season but fell short of Arsenal down the stretch. Despite their impressive four-month run, a poor start left them cannot to recover. This season, I believe the Manchester City squad will return with something to prove, fielding the league’s best striker (Haaland), who secured the Golden Boot with a record 27 goals. Support from players like Egyptian international Omar Marmoush and Belgian standout Jérémy Doku will bolster their attack.

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While Arsenal deserves its favorite status, I do not foresee Manchester City starting the season as poorly as they did last time. They can outpace Arsenal as the season progresses.

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To finish top four

Chelsea (-110)

Carr: The most significant offseason transfer for Chelsea may not be Morgan Rogers, despite the record $157 million fee paid to Aston Villa. Former Real Madrid manager Xabi Alonso now leads Chelsea after being dismissed in January due to internal disputes.

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He will need time to restore Chelsea to a top-four position, as his first season at Leverkusen saw them earn 14 fewer points than the prior year. However, Alonso did guide Leverkusen to an unbeaten league title in his second season.

Chelsea finished fifth last season before slipping to 10th, finally securing fourth with 60 non-penalty expected goals yet only scoring 51 of those. Arsenal and City are clearly ahead, but I believe other clubs are not strong enough to surpass Chelsea.

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Pond: I share Paul’s view that Chelsea can secure a top-four position under Alonso.

Despite finishing third overall in expected goals (72.21), the Blues struggled offensively, scoring a mere 58 goals last season. Their defense placed them in the middle of the pack, and their scoring struggles proved detrimental to their chances.

With key players like João Pedro and Cole Palmer leading the attack, I am optimistic that Alonso can optimize Chelsea’s performance and position them as dark horses for the title.

Golden Boot Winner

Igor Thiago, Brentford (12-1)

Pond: In search of value in the betting market, I see potential with Brentford’s Thiago.

Fresh from a World Cup appearance with Brazil, Thiago enjoyed a remarkable season, netting 22 league goals (25 in all competitions), finishing close behind Haaland in Golden Boot contention.

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Thiago’s successful transfer from Club Brugge has benefited Brentford significantly, as they missed out on a Europa League spot by just two points last season.

If injury sidelines Haaland, the race for the Golden Boot becomes competitive. Standout players like Liverpool’s Alexander Isak (+850), Chelsea’s João Pedro (18-1), and Arsenal’s Viktor Gyokeres (22-1) also have a chance.

I am backing Thiago to keep the chase close and potentially claim the title.

Cole Palmer, Chelsea (40-1)

Carr: Haaland has claimed the Golden Boot in three of the past four seasons and is the clear favorite at -150.

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Finding a contender capable of dethroning Haaland is challenging, but the longer odds are enticing. Most top contenders for the Golden Boot take penalties, while the precise penalty takers for Liverpool and Arsenal remain uncertain. Palmer stands out at 40-1, having converted 18 penalties in three seasons and scoring double-digit non-penalty goals previously.

Relying on a more fluid attack under Alonso could elevate Palmer’s goal-scoring opportunities. Betting against anyone but Haaland involves risk, but at this price, it’s a worthy gamble.

To finish top half

Bournemouth (+125)

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Pond: Bournemouth had a historic May, securing a sixth-place finish and qualifying for European competition for the first time.

This season, the Cherries aim for more than just participation; they plan to stay competitive and possibly improve on last season.

With an expected goals measurement of 66.83, Bournemouth achieved a solid xGDiff, indicating few squandered opportunities.

Maintaining U.S. international Tyler Adams’ health will be crucial. Despite battling injuries, his performance has been pivotal to the team’s success and will be vital moving forward.

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With new manager Marco Rose, if Adams stays fit alongside Lewis Cook and Adam Scott, Bournemouth could challenge for another continental position.

Crystal Palace (+250)

Carr: Crystal Palace finished 15th last season but was 10th midway through the season, focusing on the Conference League title. Although now handling Europa League duties, even replicating last season’s performance keeps them in top-half contention.

Palace underachieved in expected goals last season, suggesting potential for improvement. Jean-Philippe Mateta, who led the team with 12 goals, is expected to spearhead their attack.

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Given the odds of +250 versus last season’s +155, a top-half finish looks appealing.

To be relegated

Sunderland (+350)

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Carr: Selecting last season’s seventh-placed team for relegation may seem unconventional. However, Sunderland remains a top contender to drop down.

Despite a top-half finish last season, their lackluster goal difference raises concerns. Sunderland’s comeback victories masked their overall deficiencies, a trend that isn’t likely to continue, especially with additional Europa League commitments.

To finish bottom of the table

Hull City (+120)

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Carr: Hull City’s promotion to the Premier League came as a surprise after exceeding expectations in the Championship.

The Tigers’ underlying numbers signaled trouble, as they posted a concerning expected goal difference. Previous promoted teams from similar circumstances struggled significantly, raising concerns about Hull’s projection for this season.

Hull City (+110)

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Pond: I share the sentiment regarding Hull City and expect them to struggle this season.

The Tigers benefited from a series of fortunate events to secure promotion. Their underlying statistical profile positions them poorly heading into the Premier League, putting them at high risk for relegation.

Coventry City (+140)

Pond: Coventry City’s return to the Premier League is one of this season’s feel-good stories. Under manager Frank Lampard, they aim to achieve success after an impressive season in the Championship.

With a strong lineup capable of scoring goals, Coventry could defy expectations and avoid the relegation battle, despite facing tough opening fixtures.

Thirty-three days after the World Cup ended, the Premier League season begins on Aug. 21, filled with storylines as usual.

Can Arsenal repeat? Which big clubs will bounce back and which will struggle? How will all the new managers fare? Will a newly-promoted team stay up? Can anyone score more goals than Erling Haaland?

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These questions will take nine drama-filled months to answer, though clues lie in last season’s numbers. Each team’s players have changed to some extent, but enough holdovers remain to use underlying stats as part of this season’s projections.

For example, before last season Wolverhampton’s underlying numbers had suggested relegation danger for several years, and Bournemouth’s hinted at the ability to push for Champions League. Both omens came to fruition, as Wolves finally went down, and the Cherries took sixth.

The numbers aren’t foolproof, of course. No stats indicated Tottenham would nearly get relegated, that Chelsea would barely finish in the top half, or that Arsenal would have perhaps the best set-piece season ever. That’s the fun in sports of course. You never quite know what you’re going to get, but that doesn’t prevent us from taking our best shots.

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Soccer handicappers Paul Carr and Jeremy Pond give their best bets for the upcoming Premier League season in this extensive preview:

To win the Premier League title

Manchester City (+280)

Carr: After winning the Premier League for the first time in 21 years, Arsenal is the favorite to repeat, but not heavily so at +160. Manchester City is the second favorite at +280, as Enzo Maresca takes over from Pep Guardiola. Next are Liverpool (+500), Manchester United (+700) and Chelsea (+800), all also with new managers. The race is as wide open as any in recent memory.

The first question for the Gunners is whether they can replicate their set-piece dominance. Last season, Arsenal led the league with 25 set-piece goals — the most by any Premier League team in the last dozen years. Arsenal surpassed its total of 21 expected goals on set plays, but still led the Premier League, so a repeat isn’t out of the question. However, referees have been told to crack down on challenges that impede goalkeepers, so Arsenal’s tactics may need to change.

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But which team could rise to the top? With all the question marks surrounding every team, I don’t love anyone, but I’m going with Manchester City (+280).

Guardiola is of course gone, and Maresca was ousted by Chelsea halfway through season, but he’s spent two seasons as a City assistant, so he’s familiar with the club. He also has the world’s best striker and (at least for now) best midfielder in Rodri, and/or the heir apparent in Elliot Anderson. Jeremy Doku and Rayan Cherki give City plenty of world-class non-Haaland attacking options. City led the league in goals and expected goals last season, and the defense should be a bit better, which would be enough to catch Arsenal for the title.

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Manchester City to win, Arsenal to finish second (+700)

Pond: This might be my favorite futures wager.

Haaland and Manchester City did all they could over the final two months of last season’s campaign, but simply couldn’t catch front-running champion Arsenal down the stretch. And as impressive as the club’s four-month EPL run was to close out the season, dropping two of its first three games put it behind the proverbial 8-ball and it never recovered.

Fast forward to this season and I firmly believe this Manchester City side will be playing with a major chip on its shoulder. They have the league’s best striker (Haaland), who won the Golden Boot with a league-best 27 goals in 35 appearances. And when you throw in complimentary attackers in Egyptian international Omar Marmoush and Belgian standout Jérémy Doku, EPL foes are going to have issues stopping a side that scored a league-best 77 goals last season.

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Bottom line: Arsenal is the deserving favorite at the books and a fair price. However, I just don’t expect Manchester City – which was unbeaten in three matches against Arsenal last season – to start the campaign the way it did last season and have to chase whomever is atop the table the rest of the way.

Back Manchester City to flip the script on Arsenal late in the campaign at this juicy price and pull away from last season’s champion.

To finish top four

Chelsea (-110)

Carr: Chelsea’s most important offseason transfer probably isn’t Morgan Rogers, though the $157 million fee Chelsea paid Aston Villa is the record for an English player. Xabi Alonso is Chelsea’s new manager, joining the Blues after being fired in January by Real Madrid, as much for internal conflicts as on-the-field results.

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There’s a case that he may need a season to get the Blues back in the top four, since Leverkusen had 14 fewer points and was 25 worse in goal difference in Alonso’s first season, compared to the prior season. In his next season, of course, Alonso led Leverkusen to a famous unbeaten league title.

But Real Madrid’s cumulative results weren’t bad in Alonso’s half season, trailing first-place Barcelona by four points at the midway point, with better underlying numbers. Cup results weren’t as flattering, but Real Madrid generally hadn’t fallen off a cliff.

This Chelsea squad is somewhere between that Leverkusen squad that needed an overhaul and the star-laden Real Madrid team. Alonso needs to define and focus the team, but a complete revamp isn’t necessary. Chelsea sat fifth at the end of 2025 before fading to 10th by season’s end. The Blues still finished fourth with 60 non-penalty expected goals, but had only 51 such goals, for a minus-nine difference that was second-worst in the league.

Arsenal and City are clearly better, but I don’t think three other clubs are good enough to finish ahead of Chelsea too.

Chelsea (-110)

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Pond: Like Paul, I am having a difficult time finding any reason why the Stamford Bridge outfit can’t maneuver its way into a top-four slot and Champions League position this season under Alonso.

Chelsea did more damage to itself than its foes did last season, particularly on offense. The Blues finished third overall in expected goals (72.21), but scored just 58 goals in 38 matches. That simply won’t cut it at this elite level.

Defensively, Chelsea was middle of the pack in expected goals allowed (58.12), generating a +14.09 xG differential that was better than every other team outside the top three (Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United) on the table.

Another edge the Blues have comes via the amount of fixtures it has — or lack thereof. They have a less-congested schedule than last year’s aforementioned top-three finishers, along with Aston Villa, due to the fact they missed out on the European competitions.

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With an attack led by João Pedro and Cole Palmer, I fully expect Alonso to have all the pistons firing for Chelsea and fully back them as dark horse to challenge for the title.

Golden boot winner

Igor Thiago, Brentford (12-1)

Pond: I am strictly looking for value in the betting market and think I’ve found it with the Brentford talisman.

Thiago, fresh off a trip to the World Cup with Brazil, is coming off a brilliant campaign with the Bees. The standout striker recorded 22 league goals (25 across all competitions) to finish behind Haaland in the race for the Golden Boot.

Thiago was a costly acquisition from Belgian side Club Brugge in 2024, but that investment has paid off handsomely for the Brentford brass. The club finished in ninth last season and just two points out of a Europa League slot, largely in part to Thiago’s ability to find the back of the net.

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If for some reason Haaland misses a large amount of time due to injury or any other unforeseen circumstance, the Golden Boot race could be wide open. Standouts like Liverpool star Alexander Isak (+850), Chelsea’s João Pedro (18-1) and Arsenal standout Viktor Gyokeres (22-1) could all have a shot at top goal scorer.

I’m riding with Thiago to keep the race with Haaland close and top the Manchester City giant.

Cole Palmer, Chelsea (40-1)

Carr: Haaland has won the Golden Boot in three of the last four Premier League seasons — beaten only by Mo Salah and his 29 goals (nine penalties) in 2024-25 — and is the understandable -150 odds-on favorite.

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Finding a candidate to beat Haaland is tough, though the long prices are appealing. Nearly every Golden Boot winner has taken penalties while playing for a top-four contender. Whether Liverpool’s Isak or Arsenal’s Gyokeres will be on penalties is unclear. Bruno Fernandes and Palmer will likely take penalties for Manchester United and Chelsea, respectively, but both play out of the midfield and likely won’t have the open-play chances of a top striker.

At 40-1, Palmer is still my favorite long shot. He’s converted 18 penalties over the past three league seasons, and he had double-digit non-penalty goals in both 2023-24 and 2024-25, so there’s some precedent on Palmer making a run at 20-plus goals. Xabi Alonso’s free-flowing attack should put Palmer in better positions more often. Betting anyone except Haaland feels like betting on a Haaland injury, but at this price, I’m OK with that.

To finish top half

Bournemouth (+125)

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Pond: It was a May to remember for the South Coast side, which qualified for European football and clinched a sixth-place finish in the Premier League — its best ever in club history — in a five-day stretch.

Now, the Cherries are looking to do more than just enjoy this season’s spot in Europa League action. They’re looking to stay there – or even improve on their last campaign — and I think it’s more than doable.

Bournemouth wound up sixth in xG (66.83 per Understat) and yielded 56.77 xGA for an xGDiff that just cleared 10 for the season. The Cherries wound up with 57 points on 60.33 xPoints, so they squandered little over the course of the campaign.

There might be some bias here, but I believe a key to Bournemouth’s success is going to run through U.S. international Tyler Adams. The defensive midfielder has dealt with nonstop fitness and injury issues, playing in just 53 league matches out of a possible 78 for the Cherries.

Adams has been linked to a possible move to Tyneside outfit Newcastle this offseason, so we’ll have to monitor events surrounding the New York Red Bulls homegrown product leading up to Bournemouth’s Aug. 23 opener at Manchester City.

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However, if new manager Marco Rose gets a healthy Adams controlling the middle of the park with Lewis Cook and Adam Scott, don’t be surprised if the club contends for another spot in continental play this season.

Bournemouth is always going to be an underrated, undervalued side by the public due to a lack of name recognition and star power, but I’m buying when it comes to this outfit having another successful campaign across all competitions.

Crystal Palace (+250)

Carr: Crystal Palace finished 15th last season, but was 10th at the midway point before tailing off in the second half while focused on winning the Conference League title. Palace will have Europa League to manage this season, but even a repeat of last season’s league performance should put Palace in top-half contention.

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Palace scored 33 non-penalty goals last season, second-fewest in the league, but underachieved its expected-goals total of 52 by 19, the largest gap in the league. That suggests the Eagles were particularly unlucky, especially since they took the second-best shots in the league on average.

Jean-Philippe Mateta led Palace with 12 goals (four penalties) and 14.5 expected goals, and he looks to be back leading the line, as Palace should be in mid-table contention all season. A year ago, Palace was +155 to finish in the top half, so +250 is obviously an even more appealing price.

To be relegated

Sunderland (+350)

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Carr: Picking last season’s seventh-place team to be relegated isn’t as bold as it might seem. Sunderland is still the fourth favorite to go down, trailing only the three newly-promoted teams.

The Black Cats finished in the top half last season despite the league’s fifth-worst goal difference (minus-eight) and the third-worst expected goal difference (minus-17). They took the third-fewest shots and had the third-lowest shot quality, but they were comeback kings.

Sunderland scored first in 13 games last season, fourth-fewest in the league, but piled up six wins and 21 points after conceding first, both second-most in the league. That kind of comeback luck isn’t sustainable, and now Sunderland has a Europa League campaign to juggle too. Sunderland is trying to spend some of that Europa money on reinforcements, but will still be worth a shot to be relegated.

To finish bottom of table

Hull City (+120)

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Carr: Hull City is one of the most unlikely teams to reach the Premier League, clinching a playoff spot on the final day of the season, then beating Millwall and Middlesbrough to earn promotion.

The Tigers finished sixth with a plus-four goal difference that was eighth-best in the league, but their underlying numbers were far worse. Hull’s expected goal difference of minus-19 was second-worst in the entire league. Exceeding their expected goal difference by 23 made the Tigers the fourth-most overachieving Championship team in the last decade.

Two of the three more fortunate teams were also promoted, and both were Burnley. The 2024-25 Burnley squad was Championship runner-up then was immediately relegated earlier this year with the worst underlying numbers in the Premier League. The 2015-16 Burnley side won the Championship then stayed in the Premier League with 40 points because Sean Dyche is a wizard.

Historically, a good defense has translated better to the Premier League than a good attack, and that bodes poorly for Hull too. Last season, Hull gave up the second-most expected goals and third-best shots in the league. The Tigers are of course working to strengthen their squad, but that’s always easier on paper than on the field, and they still look like the worst team in the league by quite a bit.

Hull City (+110)

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Pond: I fully echo Paul’s sentiments when it comes to Hull City and its fascinating, unexpected return to English top-flight football.

And if we’re being honest, I wholeheartedly believe oddsmakers are giving bettors a gift of a price at anything plus money on the Tigers to finish bottom of the table.

Hull wound up sixth in the Championship to reach the playoff, then had to upset Millwall and Middlesbrough to earn promotion. Those second-most xGA (80.1 to be exact) would have parked them right behind relegated side Burnley (82.58 xGA per Understat) last season in the Premier League.

That all said, it wouldn’t surprise me if Hull City wound up with a worse figure this campaign and would be lucky if they hit 20 points through 38 fixtures.

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Coventry City (+140)

Pond: One of the best storylines entering the Premier League campaign is Coventry City and its return to the English top flight.

The West Midlands club stormed through the Championship last season, en route to 95 points that put it 11 points clear of runner-up and fellow promoted side Ipswich Town. Coventry’s stellar run through its fixtures delivered the Premier League promotion after a 26-year hiatus.

Unlike Hull City, I think Coventry can prosper and it wouldn’t surprise me if it escaped a relegation scrap. This is a talented side, led by U.S. international Haji Wright and Ghanaian forward Brandon Thomas-Asante, which racked 97 goals a season ago.

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Defensively, they finished top of the table with fewest goals allowed (45) for manager and Chelsea legend Frank Lampard. The Sky Blues notched 18 shutouts and conceded just one goal in 18 other affairs through all competitions.

The schedule makers did Coventry no favors, with the club getting Arsenal to open the season and Manchester City on Matchday 3. However, this is a long journey to the final day of matches next year and I believe the Sky Blues will stay up and easily clear the drop zone.