Headline: College Football Playoff Changes Increase Challenges for Group of Six Teams
The landscape of college football playoff eligibility has changed significantly with new rules implemented for the upcoming season. As a result, only one Group of Six team is expected to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff this December.
Due to the latest adjustments ahead of the third iteration of the 12-team playoff, champions from the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC will now automatically qualify for the playoff. This new ruling eliminates scenarios like last year’s, where Tulane and James Madison, champions of the American and Sun Belt respectively, made the playoff. Those teams benefitted from finishing ahead of ACC champion Duke in the final rankings, a scenario that will not be replicated this year.
The fifth guaranteed conference champion will come from a selection of conferences, including the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12, or Sun Belt. If these conferences hope to send more than one representative to the playoffs, they must submit an at-large bid, which appears exceedingly unlikely.
This reality confines expectations to just one Group of Six team making its way into the playoff. The contenders within this group include:
Boise State (Pac-12)
Boise State’s journey to another playoff appearance endured a setback last season after losing decisively to USF in the opening week. Following further defeats, their chances of consecutive playoff entries diminished. Now competing in the revamped Pac-12, Boise State heads to Oregon for its season opener. Quarterback Maddux Madsen and running back Dylan Riley are back, but the defense will need to shore up weaknesses, particularly after allowing nearly five yards per carry in 2025.
Fresno State (Pac-12)
Transitioning from the Mountain West to the Pac-12, Fresno State also faces a challenging start against USC in Week 1. However, the Bulldogs benefit from hosting Boise State later in October, which may position them well for a title rematch. New quarterback Khristian Martin joins a strong lineup, as the team aims to rebound from a struggling passing game last season.
James Madison (Sun Belt)
James Madison’s roster has seen significant changes since last year’s playoff appearance, with a new coaching staff and multiple player departures. However, new head coach Billy Napier has a strong track record, and the team’s schedule includes notable opponents from Conference USA and a challenging conference slate that could help bolster its playoff hopes.
Navy (American)
Navy leads the field in the American as favorites despite losing their quarterback. New starter Braxton Woodson enters a successful rushing offense, while the defense looks to improve after a difficult season with high passing yardage against them.
New Mexico (Mountain West)
With the departure of several teams to the Pac-12, New Mexico returns a strong core of players, including starting quarterback Jack Layne. The Lobos aim for a significant improvement from their 2022 record, hoping that a solid performance could propel them into playoff contention.
Tulane (American)
Following a playoff appearance and a coaching change, Tulane is on a quest for another successful season and seeks to return to the postseason. New recruits will need to integrate quickly, especially ahead of a challenging early schedule that could determine their playoff path.
UNLV (Mountain West)
In Dan Mullen’s second season, UNLV is eyeing a repeat of last year’s success after finishing with a commendable record. The team has a new quarterback lined up to replace last year’s starter while aiming to improve its defensive statistics to remain competitive.
UTSA (American)
UTSA aims to regain its winning momentum from previous seasons, with a solid offense returning. Although facing a tough opening schedule, the Roadrunners are poised to battle for the American title and secure their place in the playoff.
As the college football season approaches, all eyes will be on these teams as they navigate the new playoff eligibility rules while striving for a coveted spot in the postseason.
It’s highly, highly unlikely that we’re going to see two non-power conference champions in the College Football Playoff again.
Thanks to yet another rule change ahead of the third version of the 12-team playoff, the champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC are now guaranteed a spot in the field. That means the scenario that unfolded last year, where American champion Tulane and Sun Belt champ James Madison both got in since they were ahead of ACC champion Duke in the final CFP rankings, won’t happen again.
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This year, the fifth conference champion guaranteed into the field will come from either the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. The only way those conferences will send more than one team to the playoff is if a team from the Group of Six gets in as an at-large.
That seems nearly impossible.
It’s why we’re resigned to just one Group of Six team in the playoff this December. And we think that team will come from this group below.
Can Boise State make the College Football Playoff for the second time in three seasons? (Photo by Kevin Terrell/Getty Images)
(Kevin Terrell via Getty Images)
Boise State (Pac-12)
After making the College Football Playoff during the 2024 season, the Broncos’ playoff dreams basically disappeared in Week 1 a season ago with a 34-7 loss at USF. Boise State then lost by 21 to Notre Dame in Week 5 and a two-game losing streak ended any hope the Broncos had of making back-to-back playoff appearances.
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Now Boise State is in the remodeled Pac-12 and a Week 1 loss shouldn’t end its playoff hopes this season. Boise State travels to Oregon for the second time in three seasons. In 2024, the Broncos lost 37-34 as both teams ended up in the playoff.
Both QB Maddux Madsen and RB Dylan Riley return and the schedule features other sneaky good non-conference opponents in Memphis and Western Michigan. The defense will need to improve after allowing nearly five yards a carry in 2025 and only accruing 27 sacks after 55 in 2024.
Fresno State (Pac-12)
Like Boise State, Fresno State moves from the Mountain West to the Pac-12 and opens against a Big Ten opponent that used to be in the Pac-12. But things are especially more manageable after that Week 1 trip to USC, and the Bulldogs have the benefit of hosting Boise State on Oct. 10 before a potential rematch in the Pac-12 title game.
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QB Khristian Martin arrives from Maryland after last season’s starter E.J. Warner threw 13 TDs and 11 interceptions. Though the passing game took a major step back in 2025, the offense stayed afloat by a renewed run game and Fresno State’s top three backs all return. The defense is full of players who started their careers at power conference schools and allowed just 19 points per game in 2025.
James Madison (Sun Belt)
This team hardly resembles the one that made the playoff season ago. Coach Bob Chesney is at UCLA. RB Wayne Knight followed him there. QB Alonza Barnett is at UCF. The top three receivers from last year are no longer on the roster and LB Gannon Weathersby is the only player among the top seven tacklers to return.
Yet there’s still reason to believe that JMU is among the Sun Belt favorites and can be in the mix for the CFP. Former Florida coach Billy Napier takes over for Chesney and don’t let his Florida tenure make you forget what he did at Louisiana. The Ragin’ Cajuns went 33-5 over his final three seasons.
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The schedule includes Conference USA favorite Liberty and a trip to San Diego State in Week 3 along with a November visit to a UConn team that was very good in 2025. Yes, there aren’t any power conference teams on the schedule. But that could ultimately play into JMU’s favor if no one else separates themselves from the Group of Six field.
Brian Newberry’s Navy team is the favorite to win the American Conference. (Photo by Terence Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Navy (American)
The Midshipmen are the favorites in the American at +375 despite the departure of QB Blake Horvath after he rushed for 16 TDs and threw for 12 others in 2025.
His replacement is Braxton Woodson, who averaged 9.4 yards a carry on 44 attempts last season and saw time when Horvath was injured. Woodson could easily top 1,000 yards rushing behind an offensive line that returns four starters and paved the way for 286 rushing yards a game in 2025.
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The defense brings back its top three tacklers, including LB MarcAnthony Parker. It will need to be better against the pass; Navy’s opponents completed 64% of their throws for 230 yards a game last year.
Even if Navy wins the American, avoiding a blowout against Notre Dame may be the key to the Midshipmen’s playoff hopes. Since a 35-32 loss in 2022, Notre Dame has won the last three meetings between the schools by a combined 142-27.
New Mexico (Mountain West)
Thanks to the multiple defections to the Pac-12, the Mountain West isn’t what it once was. But perennial FCS power North Dakota State joins from the second tier and will not be a pushover for the holdovers in the conference.
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The Lobos bring back six starters on each side of the ball and won their last six regular-season games in 2025 before an overtime loss to Minnesota in the Rate Bowl. QB Jack Layne threw for nearly 2,500 yards and seven of his 10 interceptions came across two games.
LB Jaxton Eck, the son of coach Jason Eck, led the team with 129 tackles and is one of the best defensive players in the Mountain West. The odds aren’t incredibly high, but if New Mexico doesn’t get handled by Oklahoma in Week 3, an 11-1 campaign could be enough for a playoff berth and an incredible turnaround from a 2-10 season in 2022.
Tulane (American)
Like JMU, Tulane follows its playoff appearance up with a new coach as Jon Sumrall is now at Florida. Former Southern Miss coach Will Hall was promoted to replace Sumrall as the Green Wave look for a fifth consecutive season with at least nine wins.
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Former Houston and Louisiana QB Zeon Chriss-Gremillion was named the starter after he was Conner Weigman’s backup with the Cougars in 2025. RB Jamauri McClure is back after averaging over six yards a carry along with WR Anthony Brown-Stephens.
The defense returns safety Jack Tchienchou and linebacker Chris Rodgers but the pass rush basically needs to be rebuilt from scratch. We’ll have an idea of just how playoff-worthy Tulane will be early in the season too. Three of the Green Wave’s first five games are trips to Duke, Kansas State and Army. Multiple losses in that stretch may end Tulane’s playoff hopes.
UNLV won 10 games in Dan Mullen’s first season. (Photo by Louis Grasse/Getty Images)
(Louis Grasse via Getty Images)
UNLV (Mountain West)
What can Dan Mullen do in his second season in Las Vegas? The Rebels went 10-4 in 2025 as QB Anthony Colandrea scored 32 total touchdowns. He parlayed that season into a starting role at Nebraska, so Mullen added former Oklahoma and Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold through the transfer portal.
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Arnold had an up-and-down career in the SEC but could thrive in the Mountain West. RB Jai’Den Thomas rushed for 985 yards and 12 TDs in 2025 and also added 36 catches. He should be one of the most productive backs in the conference yet again.
The defense will have a lot of new faces for the second straight season and needs to be better if UNLV is to have any hope of a season good enough for the playoff. The Rebels allowed 28 points per game in 2025 and 6.4 yards a play.
UTSA (American)
This is a great chance for the Roadrunners to get back to where they were in 2021 and 2022 when they posted 25 wins across those two seasons. UTSA has gone 7-6 in each of the past two seasons with a defense that has allowed over 28 points per game.
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That unit will look a lot different in 2026 while the offense returns QB Owen McCown and RB Will Henderson. McCown threw for 30 TDs and nearly 3,000 yards in 2025 and completed almost 68% of his passes.
A game at Texas in Week 3 is a certain loss, but UTSA gets both Navy and USF at home before a trip to Tulane on Oct. 24. This is a team well-positioned to compete for the American title and, in turn, a spot in the playoff.
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