Headline: Arsenal and Manchester City Prepare for Community Shield Showdown in Cardiff
The Community Shield is set to showcase two teams eager to compete for the Premier League title this season. English champions Arsenal will face runners-up and FA Cup winners Manchester City at Cardiff’s Principality Stadium this Sunday.
This annual curtain-raiser prompts questions about whether securing victory in the Welsh capital can predict a successful season ahead, particularly in terms of goalscoring.
Do Community Shield winners usually win the Premier League?
Despite the current Premier League champions regularly participating in the Community Shield, it is surprisingly uncommon for the winners of this match to also clinch the league title. Since the inception of the Premier League in 1992-93, only eight out of 34 winners of the Charity or Community Shield have gone on to secure the league title that season. Notably, five of these occurrences took place within a six-year period from 2005 to 2010. The last instance was Manchester City in 2019, with the previous winner being Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United in 2011.
Interestingly, only one of the last 15 Community Shield winners has successfully become the champions that season. In contrast, teams that lose the Community Shield have claimed more league titles in the same season, totaling 10 victories, including Manchester City’s triumphs for three consecutive years from 2021 to 2023. Last year, Crystal Palace defeated Liverpool but finished 15th in the league, despite winning the Conference League, while Liverpool concluded their season in fifth place.
Statistically, 47% of the time (16 out of 34), the upcoming season’s Premier League champions were not involved in the Community Shield, similar to Arsenal in the 2025-26 season. Additionally, 53% of the time (18 out of 34), the Shield winners have finished the league season ahead of the runners-up. On 10 occasions, the two teams from the Shield ended up as the top two in the Premier League, with four of these instances resulting in the Shield winners finishing first and the other team as the runner-up.
Do Premier League winners usually win Community Shield?
Another point of interest is how frequently the previous season’s Premier League champions secure the Community Shield. The record shows that they have won it 18 out of 34 times, or 53% of the duration. However, this outcome has been less common recently. In the last 12 Shields, FA Cup winners have clinched eight victories, a sharp contrast to only five wins in the preceding 22 years.
There have been three instances during the Premier League era where neither the league nor the cup winners claimed the Shield, with Arsenal (in 1999 and 2023) and Manchester United (in 2010) defeating the Double winners in those encounters.
Do Community Shield goalscorers go on to have good seasons?
The impact of Community Shield goalscorers on their subsequent seasons presents a mixed picture. For instance, Crystal Palace’s 2025 scorers Jean-Philippe Mateta and Ismaila Sarr combined for 37 goals last season. Hugo Ekitike scored 17 goals in his debut season with Liverpool, while Jeremie Frimpong did not replicate such success after finding the net in the Shield.
In the 2023 matchup, Cole Palmer scored for Manchester City against Arsenal, a match they ultimately lost on penalties after Leandro Trossard’s late equalizer. Palmer later netted 22 Premier League goals and received the Young Player of the Season award with Chelsea, having moved for £42.5 million. The previous season, Darwin Nunez’s debut goal for Liverpool sparked comparisons, but he ended with just 15 goals, while Erling Haaland, who had no goals on his City debut, finished the season with an impressive 52.
Similarly, Kelechi Iheanacho scored just four Premier League goals following his Community Shield winner in 2021. In contrast, Raheem Sterling’s Shield goal in 2019 initiated the most prolific season of his career, resulting in 31 goals.
The Community Shield takes place between two teams who will be hoping to battle it out for the Premier League this season.
English champions Arsenal take on runners-up and FA Cup winners Manchester City at Cardiff’s Principality Stadium on Sunday.
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But do the stats suggest winning the curtain-raiser in the Welsh capital would indicate a successful season ahead? And what of the goalscorers?
Do Community Shield winners usually win the Premier League?
Considering the current Premier League champions play in the game every season it is surprisingly rare for the Community Shield winners to go on to win the league.
Since the Premier League started in 1992-93, only eight of the 34 winners of the Charity or Community Shield have done so.
Five of those happened in a six-year spell from 2005 until 2010.
Manchester City, in 2019, were the last team to do so – and before that it was Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United in 2011.
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Only one of the past 15 winners of the Community Shield have gone on to become champions that season.
Since 1992 the teams who lose the Community Shield have won more league titles that season – 10 in total, including Manchester City for three years in a row between 2021 and 2023.
Last year Crystal Palace beat Liverpool and ended up finishing 15th, although they did go on to win the Conference League. The Reds also had a disappointing domestic campaign, finishing fifth.
Some 47% of the time (16/34) the upcoming season’s Premier League winners had not been involved in the Community Shield – like Arsenal in 2025-26.
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And 53% of the time (18/34) the Shield winners have finished above the losers in the league that season.
On 10 occasions the two teams have finished as the top two in the Premier League – with four of those times being the Shield winners top and the losers as runners-up.
Do Premier League winners usually win Community Shield?
The other question is how many Community Shields are won by the previous season’s Premier League winners.
The answer is 18 out of 34 times – so 53%.
But in recent times it has become less frequent. Including Crystal Palace, the FA Cup winners have won eight of the past 12 Shields, something that had only happened five times in the previous 22.
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And on three occasions in the Premier League era, neither the league nor cup winners have won it.
Arsenal (1999 and 2023) and Manchester United (2010) qualified as Premier League runners-up and beat the Double winners in the game.
Do Community Shield goalscorers go on to have good seasons?
Cole Palmer’s breakthrough season came after his 2023 Community Shield goal – albeit for a different club [Getty Images]
This one is a bit of a mixed bag.
Crystal Palace’s 2025 scorers Jean-Philippe Mateta and Ismaila Sarr netted 37 goals between them last season.
Hugo Ekitike scored his first of 17 goals in his debut season for Liverpool – but Jeremie Frimpong did not enjoy a great first campaign after netting.
In 2023 Cole Palmer netted for Manchester City in their game against Arsenal (a match they would go on to lose on penalties after Leandro Trossard’s injury-time equaliser).
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He would go on to score 22 Premier League goals and be named young player of the season… for Chelsea, having joined them for £42.5m.
The previous season, Darwin Nunez scored on his Liverpool debut – and Erling Haaland failed to notch on his City bow.
That led to post-match discussion about Nunez looking the better player.
However, Haaland went on to 52 goals that season, with Nunez netting only 15.
Kelechi Iheanacho only scored four Premier League goals after his 2021 Community Shield winner.
But back in 2019 Raheem Sterling’s Shield strike for City against former club Liverpool kick-started the most productive season of his career (31 goals).
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A version of this article first appeared before the 2025 Community Shield
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