Sunderland Faces Challenging Season Ahead Amid Relegation Concerns
Sunderland remains a top contender for relegation, according to bookmakers, alongside newly promoted teams like Hull City, Coventry, and Ipswich. Despite last season’s successes, underlying statistics hint that replicating that performance could prove difficult.
The concept of expected goals (xG) helps to evaluate how well teams generate quality chances and restrict opposing teams to fewer scoring opportunities, based on historical data from similar situations. Notably, Sunderland registered a better xG difference last season than only relegated teams Burnley and Wolves. In contrast, teams like West Ham, which had the fourth-worst overall xG, faced relegation as well.
While Aston Villa and Sunderland unexpectedly outperformed their xG metrics by finishing higher in the standings, most teams typically adhered closely to their underlying stats. Reports indicate that Manchester City and Villa surpassed their xG figures more significantly than Sunderland, which managed to score three more goals while conceding six fewer than anticipated given the quality of shots taken.
As the analysis unfolds, it appears that Sunderland’s overall performances may not have matched their results. A significant factor in their season was the Africa Cup of Nations, where they lost six players—more than any other team—during December and January. Although the team experienced a dip in form early in the season, the impact was magnified during the tournament due to a stretched squad.
However, as those players returned, Sunderland’s performance metrics took a turn for the better, allowing them to finish the campaign with the characteristics of a mid-table team. As the 2026-27 season approaches without the Afcon disruptions, Sunderland may avoid a substantial decline in performance. If the Black Cats replicate the successes of their season’s end, relegation may only be a distant concern.
Why – outside newly promoted teams Hull City, Coventry and Ipswich – are Sunderland once again among the bookmakers’ favourites for the drop?
While results and where you finish in the table are ultimately all that matter, Sunderland’s underlying statistics from last season suggest repeating their success might not be so simple.
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Expected goals (xG) tells us how well teams do the basics of creating lots of good chances and limiting their opponents to few low-quality ones, based on how hundreds of teams before them have scored or conceded from those opportunities.
Only relegated Burnley and Wolves had a lower xG difference than Regis le Bris’ side last season, while West Ham – with the fourth-worst overall xG – were also relegated.
While Aston Villa and Sunderland made a mockery of xG by finishing much higher in the table, the majority of sides finished mostly in line with their underlying numbers, showing those two overachievers were more the exception that proves the rule.
Only Manchester City and Villa overperformed their xG numbers by more than the Black Cats, who scored three more goals and conceded six fewer than expected given the number and quality of shots taken.
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So taking the season as a whole, it seems that Sunderland’s performances weren’t as impressive as their results. But one event significantly affected part of the Black Cats’ season: the Africa Cup of Nations.
They were without six players – twice as many as any other side – during the tournament in December and January. While the club’s performances had already declined after a strong start, they suffered even more when their squad was stretched.
But once all those players returned, Sunderland’s underlying numbers improved throughout the rest of the season and they ended the campaign playing like a mid-table side.
With no Afcon this season, the Black Cats may not suffer such a drop in performance. If they continue the 2026-27 season as they finished the last then relegation should be only a remote possibility.
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