World Cup Penalty Shootouts: What the Data Reveals

The World Cup has reached the quarter-final stage, signaling the potential for more high-stakes penalty shootouts. Before the tournament’s knockout phase began, BBC Sport and Opta reviewed every penalty ever taken in a World Cup shootout. Following four memorable shootouts in the last 32 and last 16, a fresh look at the statistics offers new insights into the drama of the spot-kick.

So far, we have witnessed the first sudden-death penalties at a World Cup since 1994, two separate shootouts featuring a joint-record of five misses, and only the second instance of a goalkeeper entering the game as a substitute specifically for a shootout. Since 1982, players have taken 360 penalties across 39 shootouts.

Which countries fare best and worst?

Following their loss to Morocco in the last 32, the Netherlands joined Spain with a record of four shootout defeats. Both nations have won only one of their five attempts, missing a combined total of nine penalties. England sits among three teams with three defeats, totaling eight misses.

Argentina remains the most successful nation by a significant margin, winning six of their seven shootouts, including the 2022 final in Qatar. Croatia maintains a perfect record, winning all four of their shootouts, while Germany’s defeat to Paraguay this summer moved their record to four wins from five attempts. Conversely, Colombia, Japan, Mexico, and Romania have lost both of their shootout appearances.

Egypt’s victory over Australia in the last 32 placed them alongside Belgium and South Korea as the only teams to have successfully converted every penalty they have taken. Mexico holds the poorest record, with a 29% success rate, scoring only two of seven attempts. Switzerland, which held a 0% success rate with three misses, improved to 50% after defeating Colombia.

Which players are the shootout kings?

Argentina’s Lionel Messi and Croatia’s Luka Modric are the only players to have scored penalties in three different World Cup shootouts, both maintaining a 100% success rate. Notably, one of Messi’s conversions occurred during the 2022 final against France. However, his overall record from the spot during World Cup matches stands at four from eight, including two misses at the 2026 tournament.

Twenty-six players have successfully converted both of their shootout attempts. Italy’s Roberto Baggio scored two of three, though his single miss proved decisive in the 1994 final.

Regarding goalkeepers, Zadar seems to produce talent, as both Luka Modric and two of the four goalkeepers with the most shootout saves originate from Croatia’s fifth-largest city. Danijel Subasic and Dominik Livakovic have each saved four spot-kicks, as have West Germany’s Harald Schumacher and Argentina’s Sergio Goycochea. Subasic, Livakovic, and Portugal’s Ricardo remain the only goalkeepers to save three penalties in a single shootout. Ricardo holds the highest save percentage at 75% after facing four kicks.

Going central is a bad idea

Data suggests that players who aim for the corners of the goal have a better chance of scoring than those who strike down the middle. Whether utilizing a Panenka or a powerful low drive, central attempts are less effective.

Approximately 73% of players score when aiming for the right, and 71% score when aiming for the left, compared to only 58% success for central kicks. While fewer central penalties are saved—18% compared to 22% for side-aimed shots—24% of central attempts miss the target entirely, including hits against the woodwork. This compares to a 7% miss rate for shots directed to either side.

Does the order of the kicks matter?

All four teams to go first in a 2026 shootout have lost. Historically, however, the advantage has been minimal, with 49% of teams taking the first penalty winning their respective shootouts. Success rates remain consistent across the first three rounds of kickers, hovering between 72% and 74%.

The fourth round sees a dip to 60% before rising to 67% in the fifth round. Sudden death has occurred in only three shootouts, including the Germany-Paraguay match this year, with a 50% success rate for players taking the sixth penalty. The least successful taker is typically the person shooting eighth overall, who scores only 58% of the time. Conversely, players taking the fourth and fifth penalties enjoy the highest success rate at 77%.

Strikers hit the spot

Forwards record the best success rate in World Cup shootouts at 73% from 112 attempts. Midfielders have converted 69% of their 156 attempts, while defenders have scored 62% of the time from 92 kicks. No goalkeeper has taken a penalty in a World Cup shootout to date. Additionally, left-footed players currently perform slightly better than right-footed players, with a success rate of 71% compared to 68%.

Do subs for the shootout work?

Evaluating the impact of substitute penalty takers is difficult, but history shows mixed results. Of the seven outfield players brought on within the final five minutes of extra time for this purpose, only three have successfully scored.

Fabian Balbuena had his attempt saved by Germany’s Manuel Neuer, while Mahmoud Saber successfully converted for Egypt against Australia. Paulo Dybala scored during the 2022 final, but players like Badr Benoun, Pablo Sarabia, and Jamie Carragher all failed to convert their attempts. West Germany’s Pierre Littbarski was the first to successfully enter the game late and score during a 1986 quarter-final.

Regarding goalkeepers, the Netherlands’ Tim Krul famously entered in the 121st minute against Costa Rica in 2014, saving two penalties. However, the strategy failed for Australia’s Mat Ryan this summer, as Egypt converted all four of their penalties.