With Argentina, England, France, and Spain just two games away from glory, we analyzed the performance of the four semi-finalists to determine who might lift the World Cup trophy this weekend.

All teams have played six matches, but Argentina has played an hour more of football than France and Spain due to extra time, while England has played half an hour more. To ensure an accurate comparison, we have adjusted all statistics to account for playing time.

Although reigning champions Argentina have scored the most goals with 17, two-time World Cup winners France have been the most potent attacking side. They currently lead in average goals, joint-most shots, and highest Expected Goals per 90 minutes.

Argentina has proven the most clinical, converting 18% of their chances. Conversely, European champions Spain have struggled to convert; despite matching France’s 110 shots, they have scored only 11 goals compared to France’s 16—a deficit of nearly one goal per game.

England has been less creative than the other three semi-finalists regarding the volume and quality of shots. However, clinical finishing from Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane has maintained their scoring rate at more than two goals per game.

Spain remains the most solid defensive unit, conceding their first goal of the tournament only during their quarter-final victory against Belgium. France has also performed well at the back, conceding just two goals throughout their six matches.

With France’s formidable attack on display, the upcoming Tuesday clash between their scoring power and Spain’s defensive rigidity will be a key storyline. The other semi-final between England and Argentina could also yield high scores, as neither defense has shown total reliability. Both teams have conceded six goals, with England allowing the most chances and Argentina struggling most to keep opponents out.

While Argentina has covered the most ground at 706.5km, this total is skewed by their longer playing time. When adjusted for minutes played, Argentina has actually covered the least ground and recorded the fewest sprints. In every match played so far, their opponents have out-run them.

Unsurprisingly, the reigning champions have been the least aggressive in their press, winning the ball high up the pitch less frequently than England, France, or Spain. In contrast, Spain has proven the most industrious side, leading the final four in running distance, sprinting, and pressing intensity.

Luis de la Fuente’s Spain side has also dominated possession with 66%—the highest of any team in this World Cup. They share the tournament’s best passing accuracy with Argentina at 90.4%, though all four remaining teams have displayed high levels of passing proficiency.

England’s defensive line must remain alert to cut out the through balls that Argentina, particularly Lionel Messi, has utilized effectively. Messi has played more through balls to his teammates than any other player in the tournament with 15.

However, England possesses its own aerial threat. Thomas Tuchel’s squad has been the most successful at crossing in open play, finding a teammate with one out of every four attempts. This efficiency has helped them record the joint-most headed goals with four and the highest number of headed shots with 24.

Argentina holds the lowest aerial duel success rate among the final four, which should encourage England to continue utilizing their strength in the air. England also holds the best success rate in 50-50 challenges, albeit by a narrow margin.

While only two players have successfully dribbled past opponents more frequently than Lionel Messi in this tournament, his teammates have attempted fewer dribbles. Meanwhile, Spain should anticipate persistent pressure from France’s front four, who have consistently run at defenders throughout the competition.